There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the NSA eavesdropping programme, which reportedly has been surveilling US citizens without first getting a warrant. In one of these discussions, someone asked:
What’s the worst case scenario? How big could it be?
That’s a really good question. It occurs to me that no one has really attempted to address this yet in layman’s terms, so here goes….
On January 14, 2005, the Intelsat 804 satellite suddenly lost its power source and began drifting helplessly in space. This satellite provided much, and in some cases all, of the communications lines for countries from Sri Lanka to Samoa.
The effect of this sudden loss of service was particularly severe on Pacific island nations, because in many places this satellite represented the only communication link to the outside world. As of January 21, some countries were still offline, and others were still experiencing problems.
International communications were badly disrupted. International telephone and fax traffic stopped. Internet access was gone. Banks and credit card companies could not conduct transactions, leaving tourists without cash and resort owners accepting debts on faith alone. Airlines and airports could not communicate easily. Most importantly, disaster early warning systems were severely impaired.
When reviewing the list of affected countries, one thing quickly becomes clear: the countries most affected by the satellite failure were those whose communications systems had a single point of failure.
Single Point of Failure. Every network analyst knows, and fears, this term. It’s simple enough in principle: when planning a communications system, always make sure that there’s no single part whose failure can bring the whole system down.
In practice, it’s not as easy as it sounds. The failure of the Intelsat 804 satellite continues to cause significant problems throughout the Pacific region, particularly among the small island nations. This is mostly because the cost of communications makes having back-up satellite access very difficult.
Because of the relatively small amount of traffic they buy, Pacific island nations are relatively unimportant to international satellite providers. Technicians working to fix the problem reported spending hours, even days, trying to contact Intelsat staff. They spoke of being given emergency space on an alternative satellite, only to be bumped off by other customers.
The money that a satellite provider makes from a small island country is, relatively speaking, very small. From a business perspective, we’re not very important to them. But for us, international communications are more important than just business.
What if there had been a natural disaster? At the height of the hurricane season, in a region prone to earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis, this is not merely idle speculation. In fact, shortly after the outage occurred, there was a strong earthquake in Micronesia. Had it caused even a localised tsunami, the loss of communications could have cost us many lives.
Looking at the list of affected countries, it quickly becomes clear that those who suffered most are the ones who had only one connection to the outside world. Several countries had separate contracts for data and voice communications. When voice communications disappeared, they were able to use their data lines to compensate. In one case, technicians were able to use Voice Over IP (VOIP) protocols to enable outbound telephone calls within twelve hours.
What lessons can we take from this incident? It’s clear now that those carriers who relied on a single source for their data and voice communications paid most dearly. Their customers paid dearly too, in terms of lost business. It was pure luck that no lives were lost. Next time, we might not be so lucky.
But what can we do to prevent this happening again? The answer is to remove single points of failure wherever possible. Satellite communication is expensive, and underwater cable even more so. Still, it’s been demonstrated that opening national markets to multiple data carriers usually reduces prices for consumers and increases revenues for the carriers. In New Caledonia, data use has increased by one thousand percent since it opened its communications market three years ago. Importantly, they were one of the least affected nations when the Intelsat 804 failed.
Opening the communications market is not an appropriate answer for every island nation. Some are simply too small to support it. In these cases, using separate providers for voice and data service at very least ensures that if the one is lost, the other is still available.
Single Points of Failure are a liability in every system. International communications is one area where such a liability can cost lives.
Our time down here is short. Watch carefully,
and I will show you how to dodge the light
whose lances pierce the blue below with white
hafts that wound and feed this shallow sea.
We’ll share the humour in the moray’s grin, for he
can laugh like Death. He understands this bright
pageant. Every creature within sight’s
an incandescent killer, sinning, free.
You do not break the surface; it breaks you.
And what flows down beneath these waves is more
immersed in evanescence than the shore-
bound sack of bones that thought it knew
what time was all about, and when to leave.
The coral garden wants you. Only breathe.
*****
Full fathom five? No time for that. We’re down
where pugilists in clown face guard the waving
face of each anenome. The roving
reef shark wanders amiably round,
oblivious to you and me. We’re bound
to have his kind attention, but he’s waiving
recognition. Now our shadow’s moving
a little deeper, a little further down.
We learn again what colour is, and time
is tightened, stretched until it only flows
in patient, ebbing seconds. Now our slow
ascent along the cliff face is a climb
to altitude. No sooner does your burning
chest abate than you talk of returning.
*****
Parrot fish and angels clean the reef;
iridescent wrasses, gold and blue,
clean angel fish and parrot. So what’s new?
Eating turds for breakfast is the brief
of every soul. Post-Darwinist belief
that somehow human nature could accrue
some special status simply isn’t true –
we see shit-eating grins, but not the teeth.
So don’t pretend that lobster in the pot
is sweeter when our ignorance of sources
denies excreta’s one of its main courses.
Wish truth were always beauty? Well it’s not.
I only wish that people had the grace
these fish have when they stuff shit in their face.
*****
The rumour of a passing file of silent
grenadiers, distant flashing epaulettes
of silver, guards the border of the depths.
A pageant, witnessed through the blithe lens
of fancy. You might never leave these islands.
But why depict how Life calls in its debts
as sweet Romantic rhapsody? Do let’s
admit for once its means are often violent.
And when entranced by light and silent grace,
let no impassioned thoughts inveigle you.
This cohort’s made of pretty killers who
are second-rate compared to our race.
For though Death’s means are seldom found deficient,
humanity is vastly more efficient.
*****
Five feet below the surface, everything
comes clear. Though sunlight reaches far below,
until you breach the thermocline, you’ve no
clear picture what you’re witnessing.
A hanging moment – motionless, you cling
to clarity of vision, try to slow
the heavy, even seconds. Still, you know
there is no greater joy than surfacing.
Why life should love the sun’s no mystery.
The crowded, shallow spaces that it reaches
are rife with testament, as are the beaches.
So why dive deep with such alacrity?
And when you reach the depth where colour peters
out, what have you earned but fourteen meters?
Attitudes and affiliations
are a constant cause
of callous consternation
in this tough-taking town
in this alienation
she’s pretending she’s down
on the situation
she don’t
don’t know but she’s talking about it herself
don’t know but what she’s talking about is herself
She claims she’s the cause of its condemnation
but her ladylike whisper was its inspiration
she’s the guiding light of a generation
but it’s whispered she’s the plight
of half the world’s population
she don’t
don’t know but she’s talking about it herself
don’t know but what she’s talking about is herself